Why Obama won
George W. Bush gave up. After he was elected to his second term, the swift boat influenced electorate gave our boondoggle in Iraq new life. In 2006 the US Congress was asked to authorize another $150 Billion in war spending. A dangerous and arrogant neo-conservative ideology was emboldened to try to fail the same way, just with more money. With all of the political capital flushed down the Tigris, these were among the darkest days of the Bush administration.
There was no will by the Bush 43 administration to take corrective action, until it was too late. The surge was a success, but the damage to America was already done.
We were weaker abroad.
We were weaker at home.
In the fall of 2006, this was just the opening for an insurgent opposition party to take back the White House.
But the decline in American power in 2006 was just the beginning. Our economy began to show signs of weakness but was resilient enough to withstand lost jobs and home foreclosures.
Our resilient economy and the success of the surge let us in to a false sense of complacency.
At this point, George W. Bush gave up. You could see it in his face. You could see it in his press conferences. He was even bored at the opening ceremonies of the Olympics in 2008.
By this time the Taliban has grown stronger in Afghanistan, Banks were reporting large losses, Vladamir Putin was consolidating a more permanent hold on power in Russia, and Iran was threatening anyone who would listen.
The President did not seem to care; he had no passion or real power left to deal with these problems. So they got worse.
And America got weaker.
The September surprise was the banking system failure and an obnoxiously large bailout package that turned free market conservatives into urgent socialists.
Everyone became more anxious. Traditional policy arguments went out the window.
The Republican Party was losing hold of its coalition. By October 2008, this was an acute problem re-enforced by many of the polling cross tabs.
• Rural white voters who were reliable values voters in 2000 and 2004, were expressing a preference for an Urban African American with a liberal voting record.
• Hispanic voters were breaking for Obama in greater numbers than expected
• The Jewish vote was appearing to be less Republican in polling than most expected
• Older voters were abandoning the oldest candidate to run for a first term
• Libertarian voters did not find the Paulson/Bush/McCain/Pelosi/Reid/Obama bailout plan something to get excited about – and were reminded about the neo-con big government policies that tied the Government up
The reasons for opposing Obama were countered by the following arguments.
Obama is not ready. McCain picks Palin as VP
Obama is a socialist. McCain wants to buy bad mortgages and supported the bailout plan.
Obama cannot lead or be trusted. Obama runs one of the best campaigns in history. The larger, late mistakes are from Biden’s mouth.
Obama has bad associations. It is apparent that the American people did not care about this. Much ado about nothing.
Obama is not like you. (Also Obama is just a celebrity) Obama was able to humanize himself when visiting his dying grandmother. Also, his unique narrative and campaign message allows many Americans to relate to him in their own way.
Obama/Pelosi/Reid will raise your taxes, ruin the Country. Obama kept on message with his middle class tax cut. Most voters (95%) benefit since they are under $200,000. And Pelosi and Reid may be ranked higher than Bush-Cheney/Boehner/McConnell
You will notice that other than the fear mongering arguments made above, little time was spent by the McCain campaign talking about real issue differences.
That’s because issues did not matter.
Barak Obama won the U.S. Presidency for 4 reasons.
Reason 1:
He is the epitome of change, and hope at the very time in our Country where we felt the weakest since Vietnam. The genius of David Axelrod cannot be undersold here. A country in turmoil, with internal and external weakness needed a savior. This was also a risk, and the campaign took a lot of flak for the “Obama is God” tone. He was humanized in the 3 debates, and he was able to re-enforce this through unprecedented money for ad buys.
To complete his narrative, Obama’s One America theme did two things. First it elevated the debate away from the Rovian-slash-and-burn tactics that McCain started using after the financial crisis. Second, espoused an egalitarian populism that helped tell Americans of all backgrounds that we are all in this together. Oh, and by the way – it is ok to vote for a black guy.
Reason 2:
He is a smart and competent leader. Obama’s debate performances really sealed it for him. If you look at the daily trackers, each debate allowed for additional non-committed voters to shift his way. This is because Obama was able to show a calm, cool, hand at the tiller – guided by his intelligence, values, and promoted by his gift of communications. He also ran a well organized, and well-managed campaign. The Obama ground game will be the model for the next 2 or 3 cycles. Scenes of any Obama office showed a methodical approach to meet a goal – something we expected out of our first MBA President and something we certainly did not see in the erratic McCain campaign.
Reason 3:
Obama did not bind himself to Federal Matching Funds and was able to spend unprecedented amounts of money to get his message out. John McCain, had not cogent message, and was not able to match Obama’s marketing muscle.
Reason 4:
After the worst president since Warren Harding, we had the worst campaign since Michael Dukakis.
John McCain is an honorable family man, a good man.
He however was not able to be himself, and bad management of his campaign contradicted the “I’m the best to manage our country” argument.
The message changed daily. He was never on message.
Why?
McCain was a maverick in his own campaign. The made it a point to stay off message. A little too maverick-y for most Americans, perhaps. I am not sure it mattered, because the traditional Republican policy arguments failed to hold traction, not necessarily because they were bad policies – but rather because policy mattered less.
Also, the Republican coalition has fallen apart. This downfall began in 2006 – and could continue until 2010.
When the party you are running with has failed to govern based on the principles it believes in, then even the base will be lost. Strike one.
When the party you are running with doesn’t know which demographics are still aligned with it, then you don’t know how to craft your message. Strike two.
When the party you are running with is the incumbent party when the Country is the weakest you. Pop-foul behind home plate, out.
Now the questions are how Obama will govern and how the GOP will rebuild.
posted by AK @ 8:12 AM
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